BASIC PROBABILITY AND CHANCE

As an “expert,” you will have to assign subjective probability, best guess, of occurrence to each outcome. It may be difficult for you to do this if you have no experience with probabilities. Some times it helps to see a probability percentage compared to the chance of occurrence, such as:

Probability, %	Chance	Example
100.0%	1 in 1	Any sure thing
50.0%	1 in 2	Coin toss
33.3%	1 in 3	Roll a 3 or 6 with a die
25.0%	1 in 4	Pull a heart from a card deck
1.9%	1 in 52	Pull a specific card from a card deck

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Too Many Decisions

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